A finance professor who believes in efficient markets is walking with a student: "Are those $10 bills on the ground?" the student asks. "No, it can't be $10 bills," the professor replies, "even if there were, they would have been picked up already."
This is a famous satire on the efficient market hypothesis. The book discussed in this morning's Ximalaya lecture is "The Most Important Thing in Investing" by Howard Marks, which also talks about the efficient market hypothesis. Howard Marks mentions that most people are driven by emotions such as greed, fear, envy, and other factors that undermine objectivity and lead to major mistakes, rather than being "objective" as assumed by the efficient market hypothesis.
Today, it seems that the turning point of the global pandemic has not arrived yet, but global stock markets have already started to rebound, and if the situation does not worsen, the so-called bottom can be roughly determined. Yesterday's blog post "Tokyo Olympics Postponed to Summer 2021" mentioned that the negative impact on the Nikkei 225 has been exhausted, speculating that the bottom is visible. Today, the Nikkei 225 ETF closed up 4.25%, indicating that it was indeed not affected by the postponement of the Olympics. Of course, it is also possible that it was more influenced by the news from the United States.
Regarding the simulated portfolio, Simulated Portfolio 2 continues to hold Shenzhen Properties A, and Simulated Portfolio 3 has bought Xiang Oil Pump and Victory Shares. Simulated Portfolio 3 is still in the debugging phase, and it can be seen that the amount of the purchase is not very reasonable and needs continuous improvement.
As for the real portfolio, Real Portfolio 1 is preparing to start experimentally tomorrow!